DraftPunk: Four Things I Learned From My 2023 Mock Draft

Some observations about this class after my first mock.

Having just done my first FULL mock of the 2023 Draft season, a month before the draft, I can tell you a little bit about planning.

It’s important to be head of the curve, which is why I dropped this less than 30 days before the actual draft happens. I’m “deadline based,” which just means I have terrible procrastination tactics.

Either way, in putting together this board, I learned a few things about the class in general and the changing paradigm of basketball in general as far as what they look for in a prospect (big creators, big shooters, bigs that can play like non-bigs).

Without further adieu, here is my mock, and four things I learned from going through this process.

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Here’s Round 1.

Here’s Round 2.

Here are my UDFAs.

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Observation One: Very Few NBA-Level Centers In This Class

The first thing I notice upon completion of this Mock was the fact that there were almost no draftable centers outside of the first few. Let’s look together at where I have some of the top officially marked “center” prospects:

• Victor Wembanyama, no. 1

• Leonard Miller, no. 17 (and to be honest, he’s probably more of a F)

• Dereck Lively II, no. 19

• James Nnaji, no. 35

These are the only four centers that are essentially guaranteed to be drafted, and they are the four named above. The next center prospects are:

• Adama Sanogo, no. 46 (confident he’s drafted)

• Oscar Tshiebwe, no. 58

• Ryan Kalkbrenner, no. 60

• Ousmane N’Diaye, no. 64

While I like Sanogo’s odds of being selected, the next three are a complete toss-up. I have Tshiebwe’s being selected with the last pick of the second round (58, due to the two forfeited picks), but who knows if he’s actually even selected because of his inability to score from outside of five feet or play really effective rim protection.

Dayton’s DaRon Holmes II was another highly thought of center prospect, but he announced his return to college before the deadline May 31st. He’s a guy that could have been a borderline first rounder depending on if he fell to the right team.

However, in next year’s objectively weaker class, Holmes II could find himself lottery.

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Observation Two: “Floor vs. Ceiling” Debate Will Define this Draft

The “floor versus ceiling” debate has raged on in scouting forever. Do you go with the safe pick you know will be consistent, or do you swing for the fences and go for high upside? Do you go with the guaranteed high-level role player, or risk a flop for a possible future All-Star?

Personally, I subscribe to the philosophy of “best player available” in almost all situations, unless there is a perfect player for a glaring need that a GM wouldn’t mind reaching on. The best example of this debate for me this year is the Amen Thompson versus Brandon Miller argument.

To me, this comparison breaks down simply. Miller is the high-floor player in this scenario pretty obviously; he has scalable traits, good size, decent athleticism, good shooting, and showed he can rally a talented team as a leader. His game translates more obviously than a guy like Amen’s does, and he also has more experience playing in a legitimate league (NCAA).

Despite his participation last season in off-brand basketball experiment Overtime Elite, and despite displaying glaring flaws like a mechanically bad jumper or a bit of a loose handle, Amen Thompson has unbelievable athletic upside that could potentially result in a gamebreaking type of player. He’s extremely quick and strong, explosive, and shifty off the dribble. At his peak, think about a 6’7 Ja Morant – THAT is the ceiling for Amen.

However, should he fail to create any kind of jumper for himself or continue to play recklessly with his ball handling, he could be a guy that barely sees time on the floor, or, worst case, finds himself out of the NBA.

So what do you do if you’re a GM?

I go Amen, every day of the week. I’m a strict disciple of the “YOLO” mindset in sports drafting. Floyd Mayweather once said, “Scared money don’t make no money.” I think this is an example of what he means (maybe).

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Observation Three: Competitors to NCAA Continue Making Headway As NBA Pipelines

For a long time, college basketball was the really only tried and true way to get your name called on NBA Draft Night. Whether it was Magic Johnson’s Michigan State Spartans against Larry Bird’s Indiana State Sycamores, or Carmelo Anthony’s Syracuse National Title, or Anthony Davis’ generational season at Kentucky, when people think pre-NBA basketball, they think college basketball; when they think pre-NBA stars, they think of the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, this has changed over time – three of the biggest stars in the sport are international at the moment. We’ve been amazed by the dazzling playoff heroics of Serbia’s Nikola Jokic, the scoring prowess of Cameroonian MVP Joel Embiid, and the magic of Dallas’ own Slovenian wunderkind Luka Doncic.

Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, considered by many to be the top two picks in this year’s draft, are both from non-NCAA leagues. Wembanyama played for French professional team Metropolitans 92, while Henderson played for US pro basketball farm system G-League Ignite, along with two other likely first-round picks in Leonard Miller and Sidy Cissoko.

This seems like a year where the top five picks could have just one college player taken (Brandon Miller). Obviously, guys like Cam Whitmore and Jarace Walker are looming, and I think Whitmore goes no. 5. Still, it’s an interesting shift in the landscape. With Henderson, the Thompson twins (Amen and Ausar), and Wembanyama, it seems like the top of this draft is going to be fairly devoid of college star power.

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Observation Four: This Draft is LOADED.

This could have probably been point #1.

It’s been talked about, but in my opinion it is safe to say that this 2023 Draft will go down as one of the best drafts of the last 15 seasons. The talent isn’t just elite at the top – it’s a really deep class, where there are valuable guys throughout the late first and early second rounds.

This is the kind of draft where you can nuke your franchise and try to make headway into a new era. San Antonio is obviously doing it with the future selection of unanimous no. 1 prospect, French center Victor Wembanyama. Other teams will start selling off pieces and trading assets to get into the lottery, as guys like Jarace Walker are day-one starters that can impact a franchise immediately.

There are legitimate game-changers across the lottery. Even guys that aren’t top-10 picks, like Michigan guard Kobe Bufkin or Duke wing Dariq Whitehead, have me really excited about their potential roles going forward.

Relating a bit back to the NCAA vs. Overseas vs. Domestic Pro Ball debate, there are guys who are “mysteries” to the general viewing public due to their lacking media coverage who will eventually be stars.

Players like Wembanyama, the Thompson twins, Leonard Miller, Sidy Cissoko, Bilal Coulibaly, Rayan Rupert, James Nnaji, and other non-college players have a chance to make names for themselves in America for the first time, while a guy like Brandon Miller played in the NCAA Tournament and was grandfathered into the heart of the basketball-viewing public.

Regardless of where they were before the NBA, this will be a group of guys that in 10 years will be looked back upon with reverence, and with an understanding of the importance of this class’ collective career.

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@KeenanWomack on Twitter.